China's Belt and Road Initiative is a project of unprecedented scale.Neverthelcss, know[edge about the potitico[, ocoriomir nnd rcjltural goals and opportunities are Lagging behind.Creating Megatrends presents the narrative of the chances and risks in China's Belt and Road Initiative. In the past, Large shifts in economic. technological and social developments have resulted from trends and ideas beginning bottom up in cities and Loca[ communities. finally forming a Megatrend. No one was in charge. China's Belt and Road Initiative goes the opposite way.China's Initiative offers the strategic framework of reinventing globalization, orchestrated, but Leaving space to maneuver for all p.irticipants. The underlying principal is sharing: China's own exponcnce, its economic Succoss story of developing through investments in road.rait and port networks,andsmart ec o[ogical citics. It isworking with nations, involving advanced technologies, management experience. It is stabililing Volatile reqions and COuntrics by helping thcm to find their own approach to progress and development.Belt and Road Initiative is creating the infrastructure and connectivity needed to Link communities and create and Leverage on economic opportunities for state and private investment, entrepreneurs and workmen. At the same time, involving smart infrastructure, clean energy and ecological cities, the Initiative calls for protection of environment and heritage as part of a cultural exchange.These high set goals cannot be reach without creating a new and solid foundation aside of the o[d Bretton Woods System. Belt and Road Initiative is developing a new model of global governance, a new financiaL architecture, new financial institutions and multilateral development banks.More than 60 percent of the world's population in more than a hundred nations are involved. Crpating Megatrends highlights the opportunities, challenges and risks th:s grand and experimontal project is facing.
本书的3位国际知名学者站在局外者的角度,以全球战略的眼光,对中国“一带一路”宏大构想进行深入解读。现在的世界是一个多中心的世界。“一带一路”正是多中心全球秩序、多样化经济结构的重要支柱,也是稳定动荡地区和国家局势的重要力量。“一带一路”会对财富更均衡地分配发挥实实在在的作用。“一带一路”要做的不是提供援助,而是创造出适宜的条件帮助人们自食其力。“一带一路”倡议是宏大的,它的推动涉及蓝图的设计,各个参与国家、地区、组织的协调,作者以问题的形式,梳理了“一带一路”建设过程中在基础设施建设、金融、环保、投资、能源、产业战略等上的综合考量。“一带一路”的各种策略可谓牵一发而动全身,作者从国际视角,对中国制定的“一带一路”各种政策做了剖析,对其在政治、经济上的影响力作了客观评价,指出中国这个位于世界中央的古老国度即将实现伟大复兴。
《Creating Megatrends:The Belt and Road》:On a global scale China presents B&R as part: of a "democratizationof intemational relations" and the transition from a westem dominatedeconomic and political framework to a multipolar economic and politicalorder in which China plays an adequate role at the core of global affairsand a leading role in emerging economies.The Belt and Road (B&R) will become an engine for China'sgrowth, and it will feed the demand of developing neighbors andprovide infrastructure for the regions along its routes. The aim is tocreate an efficient, sustained road, rail and shipping network betweenChina, Asia, Europe, Africa, and, in the longer-term extension, Latin America. One goal is to shorten the time of bulk consumer goods' transports to Europe. It is expected to cut overland travel from Beijing to London to just two days, a trip that in 2016 took 15 days.Given the comprehensive impact of such an initiative it is no surprise that it does not only face enthusiastic and positive but also critical and even hostile reactions. As we already wrote, it involves economic, political, and geopolitical considerations and strategies.There are not only wide-ranging differences in political systems, histories, cultures, religions and ideologies, but also different ideas and approaches in how to deal with contemporary economic and social matters. Some countries along the different routes are in unstable political and/or economic conditions. The key to stability will be to operate on a common denominator that allows connecting and cooperating as well as keeping enough space to pay attention to autonomous needs. While China without doubt is the initiator anddriver of B&R, its affirmation to create partnerships on par with allcountries involved will help to calm down skepticism and create trust.According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the total amount of merchandise traded globally in 2015 reached $16.5 trillion.What will be the impact of the new trading routes, which will embrace 62.55 percent of the world's population and 28.6 percent of the world's GDP? This is a question that the govemments and businesses of all countries will need to answer in the near future, because this new trade route is being built, and it will usher in a new world trade order,all at a time when global trade has slowed from the 7 percent annual growth it reached prior to the 2008 financial crisis, to 1.5 percent in 2015 and 2016.Looking back at three decades of South and North East Asia economic development, the share of manufacturing in GDP rose above 25 percent in South East Asia and 30 percent in North East Asia. In the tail of the rapid gTowth of manufacturing, the employment rate and productivity rose, as well.At the same time, improvements were made in the skills of workers, by better training of management and the expertise and efforts of increasingly global thinking entrepreneurs. But despite all the achievements, export-processing trade has declined. China's total exports fell to minus 1.8 in 2015 and minus 2 percent in 2016 (GACC, General Administrationof Customsof China) .……
%Doris Naisbitt, an observer of global social, economic and political trends.Director of the Naisbitt China Institute. co-author of Global Game Change :Howthe Globat Southern aett Witt Reshape Our World IJanuary zoisL China'sMegatrends: Eight Pillars of a New Society, The China Model and Innovation in China.In addition to her research on future global developments Doris Naisbitt isdedicated to foster personal growth. Xinhua. the official press agency of Chinacalled her the 'global philosopher for China's youth". Her personaL experiencethat one can start a successful career Later in Life has inspired audiences and encouraged people to reinvent their own Lives.How to make the most of your talents was the red Line of Ooris Naisbitt's biweekly column in China Youth Daily, China's second Largest newspaper. Her columns were collectively published in the book: How to Get Where You Want to Go. To bridge cultural differences between China and the US and to find and build on common grounds is the story Line her book Mai-Lin My China.Doris Naisbitt is guest professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, she holds protessorships at prestfgious Nankai University and Jilin University, and at Yunnan University and Skolkovo Open University Moscow as well as a honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.John Naisbitt, author of the # 1 New York Times bestseller Megatrends, has been in the Limelight of the publishing worLd ever since the book was published 1982. It remained on the New York Times bestsetler for almost two years, mostLy as number one. Megatrends was one of publishing's greatest success stories, selling more than 1t million copies in 57 countries. The Watt Street Journal called John Naisbitt's work 'triumphantly usefuL...taking bearings in all directions and giving us the courage to do the same."t-kgatrends was followed by internationaL bestsellers: Re-inventing the Corporation in 1 9as, Megatrands 2000 in 1990. Megatrends for Women 1 991 . Global Paradox 1 992, Megatrends Asia 1995.High Tech High Touch, 1 999 and MindSet! in 2006.John Naisbitt holds 21 honorary doctor degrees and protessorships from American, Chinese and Russian Universities and is honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.In his early career John Naisbitt was an executive at Kadak and IBM. At age 34 John Naisbitt was appointed assistant secretary of education to President John Kennedy. After the president's assassination he was appointed special assistant to President Lyndon _lohnson. Urged by the social and racial turbulences in America's cities John Naisbitt began to analyse social economic and political developments in the US. which ted to publishing Megatrends in 1982.Doris and John NaisbittAfter working together as publisher and author from 1995 to 2000, John Naisbitt and Doris Naisbitt. his former German Language publisher, married in 2000 and began their collaboration as co-authors. They speak to audiences in Asia, Latin America, Africa, Europe and the US, and have appeared on many television programs, written for first-tier publications, and addressed numerous government and policymaking institutions.Laurence J. Brahm, is an international crisis mediation lawyer and developmental economist. He is founder of the Himalayan Consensus, a regionaL multi-stakeholder multi-lateral process dedicated to the prevention of conftict over water resources due to climate disruption.Between 2013-2015. as Senior Advisor to China's Ministry of Environmental Protection he was Lead drafter of 'EcologicaL Civilization-. China's 'green print' for renewable energy and water conservation. During this period he also served as advisor to Bhutan's National Environmental Commission. In 2015 Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson invited him to serve on the HimaLaya - ThirdPole Circle, a panel forming poLicy responses to glacial melt caused by cLimate change. In 2012 as NGO spokesperson to the United Nations Earth Summit 2012IRio+20J, he was seLected by ScenaRio as one of the "100 Opinion Leaders Advising R1o+20". In 2010 he received the UNDP Award for Bio-Diversity andCuLturaL Protection in China presented by Jane Goodall. In 2008 China Central Television selected him as the only foreigner among ten individuals recognized tor contributing to China's three decades of econamic reforms and opening.As explorer and documentary film director, between 2002-2009 he Led a series ofthree expeditions across the ainghai-Tibet pLateau searching for the mythical kingdom of Shangri-la, for which he was elected Fellow International of the New York ExpLorer's Club in 2015. In 2016, dubbed "The Millennium Expedi-tions" byThree Shadows Photography Art Center, the 'Searching for Shangri-la' documentary series received the National Geographic Air and Water Conserva-tion Award for raising awareness of the glabal climate crisis.In 2017. the School of International Journalism and Communicatian, Beijing Foreign Studies University, appointed him "People-to-People Ambassador for Cultural Communications on the Belt and Road Initiative".
Doris Naisbitt, an observer of global social, economic and political trends.Director of the Naisbitt China Institute. co-author of Global Game Change :Howthe Globat Southern aett Witt Reshape Our World IJanuary zoisL China'sMegatrends: Eight Pillars of a New Society, The China Model and Innovation in China.In addition to her research on future global developments Doris Naisbitt isdedicated to foster personal growth. Xinhua. the official press agency of Chinacalled her the 'global philosopher for China's youth". Her personaL experiencethat one can start a successful career Later in Life has inspired audiences and encouraged people to reinvent their own Lives.How to make the most of your talents was the red Line of Ooris Naisbitt's biweekly column in China Youth Daily, China's second Largest newspaper. Her columns were collectively published in the book: How to Get Where You Want to Go. To bridge cultural differences between China and the US and to find and build on common grounds is the story Line her book Mai-Lin My China.Doris Naisbitt is guest professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, she holds protessorships at prestfgious Nankai University and Jilin University, and at Yunnan University and Skolkovo Open University Moscow as well as a honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.John Naisbitt, author of the # 1 New York Times bestseller Megatrends, has been in the Limelight of the publishing worLd ever since the book was published 1982. It remained on the New York Times bestsetler for almost two years, mostLy as number one. Megatrends was one of publishing's greatest success stories, selling more than 1t million copies in 57 countries. The Watt Street Journal called John Naisbitt's work 'triumphantly usefuL...taking bearings in all directions and giving us the courage to do the same."t-kgatrends was followed by internationaL bestsellers: Re-inventing the Corporation in 1 9as, Megatrands 2000 in 1990. Megatrends for Women 1 991 . Global Paradox 1 992, Megatrends Asia 1995.High Tech High Touch, 1 999 and MindSet! in 2006.John Naisbitt holds 21 honorary doctor degrees and protessorships from American, Chinese and Russian Universities and is honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.In his early career John Naisbitt was an executive at Kadak and IBM. At age 34 John Naisbitt was appointed assistant secretary of education to President John Kennedy. After the president's assassination he was appointed special assistant to President Lyndon _lohnson. Urged by the social and racial turbulences in America's cities John Naisbitt began to analyse social economic and political developments in the US. which ted to publishing Megatrends in 1982.Doris and John NaisbittAfter working together as publisher and author from 1995 to 2000, John Naisbitt and Doris Naisbitt. his former German Language publisher, married in 2000 and began their collaboration as co-authors. They speak to audiences in Asia, Latin America, Africa, Europe and the US, and have appeared on many television programs, written for first-tier publications, and addressed numerous government and policymaking institutions.Laurence J. Brahm, is an international crisis mediation lawyer and developmental economist. He is founder of the Himalayan Consensus, a regionaL multi-stakeholder multi-lateral process dedicated to the prevention of conftict over water resources due to climate disruption.Between 2013-2015. as Senior Advisor to China's Ministry of Environmental Protection he was Lead drafter of 'EcologicaL Civilization-. China's 'green print' for renewable energy and water conservation. During this period he also served as advisor to Bhutan's National Environmental Commission. In 2015 Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson invited him to serve on the HimaLaya - ThirdPole Circle, a panel forming poLicy responses to glacial melt caused by cLimate change. In 2012 as NGO spokesperson to the United Nations Earth Summit 2012IRio+20J, he was seLected by ScenaRio as one of the "100 Opinion Leaders Advising R1o+20". In 2010 he received the UNDP Award for Bio-Diversity andCuLturaL Protection in China presented by Jane Goodall. In 2008 China Central Television selected him as the only foreigner among ten individuals recognized tor contributing to China's three decades of econamic reforms and opening.As explorer and documentary film director, between 2002-2009 he Led a series ofthree expeditions across the ainghai-Tibet pLateau searching for the mythical kingdom of Shangri-la, for which he was elected Fellow International of the New York ExpLorer's Club in 2015. In 2016, dubbed "The Millennium Expedi-tions" byThree Shadows Photography Art Center, the 'Searching for Shangri-la' documentary series received the National Geographic Air and Water Conserva-tion Award for raising awareness of the glabal climate crisis.In 2017. the School of International Journalism and Communicatian, Beijing Foreign Studies University, appointed him "People-to-People Ambassador for Cultural Communications on the Belt and Road Initiative".
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