Irving Fisher (1867-1947)
Irving Fisher was one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of the clearest economics writers of all time. He had the intellect to use mathematics in virtually all his theories and the good sense to introduce it only after he had clearly explained the central principles in words. And he explained very well. Fisher's Theory of Interest is written so clearly that graduate economics students, who still study it today, often find that they can read—and understand—half the book in one sitting. With other writings in technical economics, this is unheard of.
Although he damaged his reputation by insisting throughout the Great Depression that recovery was imminent, contemporary economic models of interest and capital are based on Fisherian principles. Similarly, monetarism is founded on Fisher's principles of money and prices.
Fisher called interest "an index of a community's preference for a dollar of present [income] over a dollar of future income." He labeled his theory of interest the "impatience and opportunity" theory. Interest rates, Fisher postulated, result from the interaction of two forces: the "time preference" people have for capital now, and the investment opportunity principle (that income invested now will yield greater income in the future). This reasoning sounds very much like B鰄m-Bawerk's. Indeed, Fisher's Theory of Interest was dedicated to "the memory of John Rae and of Eugen von B鰄m-Bawerk, who laid the foundations upon which I have endeavored to build." But Fisher objected to B鰄m-Bawerk's idea that roundaboutness necessarily increases production. Instead, argued Fisher, at a positive interest rate, no one would ever choose a longer period unless it were more productive. So if we look at processes selected, we do find that longer periods are more productive. But, he argued, the length of the period does not in itself contribute to productivity.
Fisher defined capital as any asset that produces a flow of income over time. A flow of income, said Fisher, was distinct from the stock of capital that generated it. Capital and income are linked by the interest rate. Specifically, wrote Fisher, the value of capital is the present value of the flow of (net) income that the asset generates. This still is how economists think about capital and income today.
Fisher also opposed conventional income taxation and favored a tax on consumption to replace it. His position followed directly from his capital theory. When people save out of current income and then use the savings to invest in capital goods that yield income later, noted Fisher, they are being taxed on the income that they used to buy the capital goods and then are being taxed later on the income that the capital generates. This, he said, is double taxation of saving, and biases the tax code against saving and in favor of consumption. Fisher's reasoning is still used by economists today in making the case for consumption taxes.
Fisher was a pioneer in the construction and use of price indexes. James Tobin of Yale has called Fisher "the greatest expert of all time on index numbers." Indeed, from 1923 to 1936, his own Index Number Institute computed price indexes from all over the world.
Fisher was also the first economist to distinguish clearly between real and nominal interest rates. He pointed out that the real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate (the one we observe) minus the expected inflation rate. If the nominal interest rate is 12 percent, for example, but people expect inflation of 7 percent, then the real interest rate is only 5 percent. Again, this is still the basic understanding of modern economists.
Fisher laid out a more modern quantity theory of money (i.e., monetarism) than had been done before. He formulated his theory in terms of the Equation of Exchange, which says that MV = PT, where M equals the stock of money; V equals velocity, or how quickly money circulates in an economy; P equals the price level; and T equals the total volume of transactions. Again, modern economists still draw on this equation, although they usually use the version MV = Py, where y stands for real income.
The equation can be a very powerful tool for checking the consistency of one's thinking about the economy. Indeed, Reagan economist Beryl Sprinkel, who was Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs in 1981, used this equation to criticize his colleague David Stockman's economic forecasts. Sprinkel pointed out that the only way Stockman's assumptions about the growth of income, the inflation rate, and the growth of the money supply could prove true would be if velocity increased faster than it ever had before. As it turned out, velocity actually declined.
Irving Fisher was born in upstate New York in 1867. He gained an eclectic education at Yale, studying science and philosophy. He published poetry and works on astronomy, mechanics, and geometry. But his greatest concentration was on mathematics and economics, the latter having no academic department at Yale. Nonetheless, Fisher earned the first Ph.D. in economics ever awarded by Yale. Upon graduation he stayed at Yale for the rest of his career.
A three-year struggle with tuberculosis beginning in 1898 left Fisher with a profound interest in health and hygiene. He took up vegetarianism and exercise and wrote a national best-seller titled How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science, whose value he demonstrated by living until age eighty. He campaigned for Prohibition, peace, and eugenics. He was founder or president of numerous associations and agencies, including the Econometric Society and the American Economic Association. He was also a successful inventor. In 1925 his firm, which held the patent on his "visible card index" system, merged with its main competitor to form what later was known as Remington Rand and then Sperry Rand. Although the merger made him very wealthy, he lost a large part of his wealth in the stock market crash of 1929.
Selected Works
The Nature of Capital and Income. 1906.
The Purchasing Power of Money. 1911.
The Purchasing Power of Money, new and revised edition, 1922.
The Rate of Interest. 1907.
The Theory of Interest. 1930.
"Dollar Stabilization." Encyclopedia Britannica. vol. XXX, pp. 852-853. 1921.
第一篇
引论:收入与资本/货币利息与实际利息/一些常见的危险 第二篇
理论的文字说明:时间偏好(人性不耐)/利息的第一近似理论/利息的第二近似理论/投资机会原理/第二近似理论的探讨/利息的第三近似理论 第三篇
理论的数学论证:第一近似理论的几何说明/第二近似理论的几何说明/第一近似理论的公式说明/第二近似理论的公式说明/不适于数学表述的第三近似理论 第四篇
进一步的讨论:利息在经济学中的地
漂亮朋友 内容简介 《漂亮朋友》是莫泊桑作品中现实性、批判性*强,艺术手法*丰富的一部长篇小说。书中主人公杜洛阿已成为野心勃勃的机会主义者的标准文学形象。漂亮朋...
《一切始于爱情:俄罗斯三百年情诗精粹》内容简介:本书是著名俄语诗歌翻译家谷羽的全新译作,共选入百余位诗人的几百首爱情诗,时
三个火枪手-世界文学名著典藏-全译插图本 本书特色 大仲马的《三个火枪手》写的是17世纪的故事。国王路易十三和首相黎塞留红衣主教是对头,两个人明争暗斗,搞得朝中...
《海底两万里》内容简介:本书是儒勒·凡尔纳巅峰之作,也是世界范围内的科幻经典之一。小说从海面上“怪兽”出没,频频袭击各国海
《永别了,武器(海明威精选集)》内容简介:志愿参加欧战的美国青年亨利与英国女护士凯瑟琳在战地上相恋并一起逃离战场寻找宁静的
幸运儿彼尔 本书特色 《幸运儿彼尔》浸透着对基督教社会黑暗面的批判,鲜明地反映出作者反对以宗教愚弄人民的思想。它也是一幅时代的画卷,是丹麦由农业向工业化转变时期...
世界文学文库(插图本)--名人传 内容简介 罗兰,他把不同时期写的三个传记——《贝多芬传》(1902年)、《米开朗琪罗传》(1905年)和《托尔斯泰传》(191...
《古希腊悲剧喜剧集(上下)》内容简介:古希腊文学艺术是西方文明和文化的重要源头,它和中国古文明同气相求,光辉相映。古希腊戏
意大利刑事古黄学派创始人贝卡里亚的这部著作,篇幅不大但影响却极为深远,该书初版于1764年,是人类历史上第一部对刑罪原则进行
一个贪玩好色、玩世不恭的富家子弟,一个腼腆害羞、温柔可爱的超能力少女?一个胸怀世界、语出惊人的另类青年……一个我行我素、
《鼠疫》内容简介:《鼠疫》是法国存在主义作家加缪的代表作,被认为是加缪深具影响力和社会意义的作品。小说讲述了以里厄医生为代
《人机博弈:人工智能大辩论》内容简介:本书选出最有代表性的八个人工智能定义、最该被人铭记的十大事件和人物、最受关注的八个人
读客经典文库三个火枪手(全2册) 本书特色 ◆让严肃的人都忍俊不禁的传奇小说◆法兰西民族作家大仲马代表作◆版本价值:赠送插图别册,多达120幅法国高清原版插图,...
人猿泰山系列.插图本之六:野性泰山 本书特色 郝伯德曼,这个德国佬,舒心地笑开了。他欢快地向中尉说了句什么,然后拿起望远镜扫视了一遍这块宽广的平原。他们在这块绵...
《变形记:读客三个圈经典文库》内容简介:◆早上醒来,格里高尔发现自己变成了一只甲虫。震惊、痛苦、无助统统袭来…… 《变形记》
《小东西》内容简介:《小东西》是半自传性的作品,讲述了小东西的遭遇。前半部是都德本人的经历,其中痛苦多于欢乐,眼泪多于微笑
第六病室-契诃夫短篇小说选-难以忘怀的经典.俄罗斯文学卷 本书特色 《第六病室》是契诃夫*富反抗精神的作品之一。“第六病室”是一个具有象征意义的符号,一方面指具...
浮士德 本书特色 在大师辈出、杰作如林的西方文学史上,约翰·沃尔夫冈·歌德是一位罕有其匹的旷世奇才。他的传世之作《浮士德(译美文)(套装上下册)》自问世以来,文...
基度山伯爵-(全两册) 本书特色 大仲马被后人美誉为“通俗小说之王”。大仲马被别林斯基称为“一名天才的小说家”,他也是马克思 “*喜欢”的作家之一。大仲马之于小...
茶花女-世界文学名著典藏-全译插图本 本书特色 本书为我们塑造了一些生动、鲜明的艺术形象,而其中*突出、*令人难忘的自然是女主人公茶花女玛格丽特。读者们切莫把玛...